Johns Hopkins University in the USA have just published (Jan 2022) a research paper which has caused quite a stir
A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality
This is a paper that focuses on the economic factors rather than medical factors affecting mortality. Its main conclusions are as follows:
“Overall, our meta-analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had a large, significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the relationship between lockdown strictness find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced mortality by 0.2% compared to a policy based solely on recommendations.
Shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs) were also ineffective.
They only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 2.9%.
Studies looking at specific NPIs (lockdown vs. no lockdown, face-masks, closing non-essential businesses, border closures, school closures, and limiting gatherings) regarding COVID-19 mortality find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects.
However, closing non-essential businesses seems to have had some effect (reducing COVID-19 mortality by 10.6%), which is likely to be related to the closure of bars.
Masks may reduce COVID-19 mortality, but there is only one study that examines universal mask mandates.
The effect of border closures, school closures and limiting gatherings on COVID-19 mortality yields precision-weighted estimates of
-0.1%, -4.4%, and 1.6%, respectively.
Lockdowns (compared to no lockdowns) do not reduce
COVID-19 mortality.
All this is quite shocking, particularly in the light of Prof Neil Ferguson’s assertion to justify lockdowns that they would be 98% effective! I think he deserves an inverse Nobel Prize for his negative contributions – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ig_Nobel_Prize . It would be funny if it weren’t so tragically sad. The Pandemic’s Poster Boy.
Dr John Campbell had produced quite an informative video review of the paper. However, rather unusually for him, it is riddled with caveats and tentative doubts. He gives the impression that he is very shocked by the conclusions but can’t quite bring himself to criticise that ‘Powers that Be’ in the UK who got lockdowns so wrong. John, they did get it wrong! Watch and see what you think for yourselves …
A few more interesting points are revealed:
1. The mortality trends on the graphs indicate that the more stringent the lockdown conditions are the higher the likely mortality will be
2. Lockdowns have no Public Health effects but when used have enormous economic and social costs.
3. In consequence lockdown policies are ill founded and should be rejected.
4. A review of lockdown effectiveness after the Spanish Flu Pandemic by WHO in 1918-20 concluded that they had no effect on mortality.
So there we have it, 2 years of Worldwide misery for a mess of potage. As I have noted before the score is “Big Pharma 1 Rest of the World 0”
In the end the Pandemic has been ended by characteristics the Omicron variant (rapid transmission and milder symptoms) and the longer lasting Natural (individual’s) and Herd (populations’s) immunity have prevailed as vaccine effectiveness has waned.
Here is a PDF of the paper …